Oil determines «strategic allies»

PanARMENIAN.Net - "In reality there are few geographical and political ways out. As soon as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is settled, Turkey will be willing to help Armenia to set up normal ties with the external world, naturally through establishment of official, diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan. Still before the Caucasus crisis there appeared a good chance to advance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation through direct meetings between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan with assistance of mediators, the so-called Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group: Russia, France and the United States. There has been developed a substantial document including almost all settlement principles and mechanisms," Lavrov stated.

Most interesting in the above citation is the phrase «the so-called Co-chairs». Indeed, the OSCE Minsk Group has long ceased to be a regulating mechanism, and it is quite sorrowful that Armenia was the last to realize it. When Baku first spoke of changing the format of negotiations Armenian diplomats and politicians persistently convinced their people or even themselves that such an approach was erroneous. However, time showed that Yerevan was rather mistaken setting hopes on her «strategic ally». Thereupon, it would be appropriate to repeat Lavrov's statement claiming that stability of Azerbaijan is the guarantee of stability of the whole region. No wonder! For the second time throughout its history Nagorno Karabakh found itself a hostage in the clutches of the Caspian oil, and it is quite natural that present Russian Government shouldn't act against its interests. Back in 1918 the Bolsheviks needed oil for fighting against the whole world, and now, 90 years later, we face the same situation. What we'll be faced with next is not a difficult guess: a second Moscow Treaty and move on through history! Meanwhile Azerbaijan is successfully flaunting its energy resources, achieving prosperity and political power in the world, as well as obtaining instruments for exerting pressure on the basic participants of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation process.

"Armenia is, in fact, blocked due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; it has great difficulties in communicating with the external world. Thus, it should be in the vital interests of Armenian people to find a soonest solution to the problem. Turkish stirring up in the region is obviously connected with the abrupt intensification of geopolitical consequences of the Caucasus crisis," assures Lavrov.

Even without the Georgian-Ossetian-Russian conflict, the USA and Russia would enter into a war in the Caucasus territory, the Caspian energy resources being the cause of it. By the way the Karabakh variant would be quite probable too. Just in this case the war would have an unpredictable result and would evidently end to the detriment of the world powers. In the light of the world financial crisis and collapse of oil price, the region is gaining special geopolitical significance. There is absolutely no doubt that the Azerbaijani Presidential Elections will be recognized democratic, even if they end up with a mass scuffle in the center of Baku, and Ilham Aliyev will be the security guarantor of the present and future oil-pipelines for another 5 years. Domination in the region would actually mean control over oil and gas, which, under the scenario of Baku, are the main trump cards of Azerbaijan in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. However, this proves to be the scenario of the OSCE Minsk Group too, as there can be given no other interpretation to Mathew Bryza's statement to the BBC Russian Service. "The principle of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is a basis in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict," he said. Quite probably France will soon make a statement too. According to Baku experts the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict depends on the ways of exporting the Azerbaijani oil and gas. All the countries, especially the potential mediators in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which, by the way, grew more in number than ever, are diverging from their own interests, initially from economic ones. "Our oil is a delicious tidbit, that irresistibly attracts nations making them forget even about «strategic allies»", considers Baku and she is right…

Karine Ter-Sahakyan