Europe will not forgive Aliyev for frustration of their South Caucasus plans

PanARMENIAN.Net - Switzerland, as a mediator in various negotiations, has earned fame and prestige. It was so at the end of the World War II, and it is so now when the security of the Euro-Atlantic region and, in particular, Europe's plans in the Caucasus are on stake. The stakes are too high to allow Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Turkey to play first fiddle in this game. In all probability, the visit is firstly dictated by Baku's need to finally define her position and, secondly, Europe itself is eager to ascertain the views of Baku on the Armenian-Turkish relations and on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Moreover, it is presumed that a certain verbal agreement on the two most pressing problems in the region already exists and the parties can simply be put before a fact, after trying to negotiate "amicably". The reasons for this "hasty" visit can be interchanged as the core is the following: the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries, which were standing behind Nalbandyan and Davutoglu during the ceremony of signing the Protocols, are eager to identify Azerbaijan's impending steps, especially in regard to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. And when the steps are identified, Europe will start using levers of pressure to force Baku to make a decision that is acceptable for Europe and the United States. This pertains not only to Azerbaijan, but also to Armenia. Simply Azerbaijan is rich in hydrocarbons and allows herself to gamble on this, thus showing incompliance not only towards Armenia, but also towards the powerful states. This could work only until the world community was interested in the rapid settlement of the Karabakh conflict. And today, when the emphasis has shifted to the speedy solution of the fundamental conflicts which hamper the realization of global economic projects, the pressure can be tough and unpleasant. Trying to estimate the situation, we can say that levers of pressure are applied on Armenia too, the most important of them being on the internal political situation in the country and the threat to change the format of the negotiation process on Karabakh, transferring it to the UN Security Council, whose sanctions may be compulsory. The worst thing that can await Armenia is the phased regulation of the conflict. In any case, the problem is being solved or it is already solved on the level of verbal agreements, while the writing is still taking shape and is perceived as a phased solution to the problem.

As for Azerbaijan, the pressure will go through "voluntary-compulsory participation" in oil and gas projects, in which she is highly interested. If Aliyev disagrees with Europe, there will be applied some more powerful levers, although for the ruling clan in Azerbaijan the control over the energy resources is the strongest argument in favor of any decision. Now one of the priorities for Europe and also for the USA is Nabucco, whose realization is totally intolerable for Russia. If everything goes well, the success of Nabucco could become a yardstick for all other projects. But it would be useful for Ilham Aliyev to realize that Europe will never forgive Azerbaijan for frustration of the projects that can put an end to Russia's hegemony in the Caucasus, for which, in all probability, the Azerbaijani President was invited to Zurich.

Against the background of current happenings quite lightly sound the statements of some Turkish politicians on the possible holdup of ratification of the Protocols. Quite strange are also the statements of Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu, who claim that "Turkey will never deliver a blow on the brotherly Azerbaijan" by opening its border with Armenia. These are just words that seem unfounded both to Baku and to the world community. There exist some time limits for ratification: two months to which both Armenia and Turkey have to confine themselves, no matter what it costs them. Otherwise they will be penalized. The question is how long this rhetoric is going to continue; the rhetoric that might end as disgracefully as Aliyev's constant threat to "return the lands". As we have already mentioned, the most Azerbaijan can expect now is the return of the two districts, about which last year spoke Leyla Aliyeva, a political scientist and the President's daughter. At least she knows what she says.

Big game has initiated in the region; everyone is eager to get the maximum but come up with minimum losses. It is especially now that Armenian diplomacy should be ready for all calls hotly discussed since the beginning of the year, to minimize losses and enhance the status of the country on the international arena as a flexible partner, who is open to dialogue.