Azerbaijan never honors agreements, expert says

PanARMENIAN.Net - Analyst Michael Rubin has expressed skepticism regarding the ongoing peace treaty process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He emphasizes that Azerbaijan has a consistent history of not honoring its signed agreements.

Rubin recalls that on March 14, Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Yerevan's acceptance of Azerbaijan's latest two demands, indicating readiness to sign the treaty. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed these developments, highlighting the need for the region to open a new chapter toward peace, reports Aravot.

However, Rubin cautions that such assessments may be premature. He points out that the text of the agreement remains confidential, often implying the inclusion of contentious provisions. Reportedly, Armenia has agreed to expel international observers monitoring the border situation due to Azerbaijan's dissatisfaction. Additionally, Yerevan has consented to amend its constitution, removing references to the declaration of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The analyst notes that Azerbaijan's constitution retains references to the 1918 declaration, which included claims over Armenian territories. Rubin recalls that previously, Nikol Pashinyan had raised concerns about this asymmetrical approach. Now, by accepting Aliyev's terms, Armenia's leadership effectively endorses Baku's territorial ambitions.

According to Rubin, Baku maintains a warlike stance, with Caliber.az, controlled by Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defense, even accusing Armenia of preparing for a new war.

Rubin also references the cases of Cyprus and Yemen, where misguided international negotiations led to greater crises. He mentions that in 1974, Turkey first invaded Cyprus, ostensibly to protect the Turkish population, but subsequently, amid Geneva negotiations, launched a second attack, seizing a significant portion of the island. Later, even the Annan Plan, developed under UN mediation, failed to ensure real peace, as Turkey continued to control the occupied territories.

Rubin warns that similar mistakes could now be repeated concerning Armenia if the peace treaty lacks mechanisms to compel Azerbaijan to adhere to its obligations. He emphasizes that the withdrawal of international observers grants Azerbaijan additional freedom to violate agreements without the threat of sanctions.

In conclusion, Rubin suggests that if Pashinyan believes the treaty is the best solution, he should subject it to a referendum. He argues that while the Armenian people desire peace, they should independently assess whether this agreement truly guarantees it.

The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced acceptance of Azerbaijan's proposals on two unresolved articles, indicating readiness to sign the Peace Agreement. Armenia is prepared to begin consultations on the timing and venue for the signing. Baku has introduced new preconditions, stating it's premature to discuss meeting dates.