May 24, 2008 - 19:11 AMT
The absence of the representatives from Karabakh in the negotiations will not bring to the resolution of the problem
Baku spoke so much of its intention to "return their lands by any means and even by war", that the country has become the hostage of its own rhetoric.
The Karabakh movement started 20 years ago. The first stage of the national-liberation war of the people of Artsakh for independence ended with the declaration of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. At present a rather complicated process of the legal recognition of NKR is underway, which, for some unknown reasons, is referred to as the process of regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In Karabakh from the very beginning this conflict has been referred to as one between Karabakh and Azerbaijan, and Armenia, quite fairly, has been considered an interested party, who is the guarantor of security and independence of NKR. It has been said more than once, that the absence of the representatives from Nagorno-Karabakh in the egotiations within the frames of the OSCE Minsk Group will not bring to the resolution of the problem. Though, if thinking twice, there is no resolution: the people of NKR with weapon in their hands stood up and won its independence and the possible peace agreement between NKR and Azerbaijan must simply fix a status quo. Naturally, this kind of agreement will not be handy for Azerbaijan. Baku spoke so much of its intention to "return their lands by any means and even by war", that the country has become the hostage of its own rhetoric. "Azerbaijan is an advocate of peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, but if needed, it is ready to go for other ways of the resolution of the problem," said the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Vagif Sadikhov, and then added that Azerbaijan is not going to endure the
created situation for decades.
According to his words, Azerbaijan which is developing its economy very fast and is getting big profits by realization of projects in the energy sphere and by supplying its own energy recourses to the world market has to spend a lot of money on the military necessities. But is Azerbaijan indeed as successful as the image-makers from Baku at the head of President Ilham Aliyev say? According to the Head of the General Board of the CIS countries and RIA "Novosti" Alan Kasayev, Azerbaijan is now forming up an image of investment appeal, trying to solve the problems with Iran and etermine the status of the Caspian. "The pre-election situation in Azerbaijan is becoming complicated because of the instability in the country. This is the basic reason of the anti-Armenian and explicit militarist rhetoric, which is used by the authorities to unite the nation. However, it should not be forgotten that 60-70% of the population of Azerbaijan is comprised by villagers, frequently almost illiterate. On the whole, Azerbaijan is an underdeveloped and a poorly educated country, living on the expense of oil income, which sooner or later will be exhausted. There is no rural economy in the country, there is no industry, with the exception of a couple of oil factories in Baku. One cannot fit the entire population of the country in the capital. So, the actively developing image of the enemy is one of the elements of society consolidation," emphasized the Russian expert.
According to the Russian diplomat Vladimir Kazimirov, who is one of the best known experts on regulation process, no country ever announces the stake on the power like Baku. Perhaps, it is not by chance that Azerbaijan is recognized one of the most aggressive countries in the world.
At present the recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed republics became a more complicated process because of the Kosovo precedent. "After the recognition of Kosovo the international opinion is against the right on self-determination. It was announced everywhere that Kosovo must not become a precedent, and these are not simply words, but the disposition of the international community. This will become a big prohibition on our way. Besides, the intensification of the contradictions between the USA and Russia will have a negative impact on our region. However, I think that the document, which is now on the desk for the negotiations, is the most optimal one, I hope. Azerbaijan will not give it up," said the former Minister of Foreign affairs of Armenia Vartan Oskanyan, who has been holding the negotiations with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan within the frames of the OSCE Minsk Group.
Meanwhile, the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation had serious fears about the negotiations and the end of the peaceful regulation of the conflict. "However, the fears of the OSCE were scattered away after the meeting with the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as with the official representatives of two conflicting parties. At present negotiations on returning 5 regions, including the Nagorno-Karabakh safe haven are being held. After that the OSCE suggests determining the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh. After returning the 5 regions, Karabakh is ready to
start the negotiations with Azerbaijan regarding the status," said the French Co-chair.