Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, believes that by agreeing to a ceasefire, the Armenians of Karabakh may have avoided complete destruction but they are more likely facing a slow-motion removal from their homeland.

“A ceasefire is positive, obviously, if it lasts, as the threat of mass bloodshed will be averted,” he wrote in an email to The Guardian on Thursday, September 21. “What we are seeing here is the intervention of Russia on behalf of Azerbaijan to keep its peacekeeping force in Karabakh at least for the time being and thereby a foothold in the South Caucasus.

“The main losers are the Karabakh Armenians who have lost their 35-year-old struggle for self-determination or secession from Azerbaijan.

“They now lose any means of self-defence and face a very uncertain future in Azerbaijan. The Karabakhis may have avoided complete destruction but they are more likely facing a slow-motion removal from their homeland, as Azerbaijan is not offering them any autonomy or special political rights.”

The other losers, he said, “are the European Union and the United States, which have tried hard to be mediators in this conflict but whose message of rights and international guarantees is being drowned out by the tougher messages of Azerbaijan and Russia”.