The Lemkin Institute has issued a Red Flag Alert due to the “alarming potential” for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the coming days and weeks.

“Azerbaijan has long coveted Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, which has been discussed in the recent past as the site of an Azerbaijani-controlled “Zangezur Corridor” to Nakhichevan. Considering recent political developments in the region—including the Azerbaijani invasion of Artsakh on September 19, 2023 and the ensuing seizure of the territory—and well-established genocidal Armenophobia endemic in Türkiye and #Azerbaijan, an Azerbaijani invasion runs a dangerously high risk of devolving into genocide,” the Institute said in a statement on Wednesday, November 1.

“We remind the world that genocide is not only expressed through mass murder. As was the case during the recent seizure of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh in September of 2023, genocide can also be expressed through a pattern of massacre, atrocity, and forced displacement from indigenous territory when the ideology behind these actions is aimed at destroying an identity in whole or in part.”

On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, which left hundreds of Armenians killed and thousands of others displaced. On September 20, the authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to a ceasefire on Azerbaijan’s terms, including the dissolution of the Defense Army. On September 18, President of the Republic of Artsakh Samvel Shahramanyan signed a decree, according to which the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) will cease to exist by January 1, 2024. Over 100,000 displaced residents have already fled Nagorno-Karabakh and reached Armenia.