The co-founder and vice president of the American Quincy Institute, Trita Parsi, has analyzed the impact of Middle Eastern events on the South Caucasus, Iran's policies in various directions, and U.S. interests in the region, particularly in Armenia.

He noted that Iran and Russia were previously more influential in the region, and if these two countries were not so weakened today, the current situation in the South Caucasus might have been different, Armenpress reports.

"In my observations, the Turks clearly support the Azerbaijanis, but the Azerbaijanis are more aggressive than the Turks want them to be.

Moreover, another factor complicates the situation. Azerbaijan is entirely dependent on Israel militarily. They are extremely close to Israel, whereas Turkey and Israel are at odds over the Palestinian issue. This will require great flexibility to prevent confrontations or at least an increase in tensions," he said.

The expert also pointed out that Aliyev's government is not seen as a mature actor by either its enemies or even its friends.

"This is something almost everyone agrees on. Furthermore, the fact that he is so dependent on Israel and maintains close ties with it increases the likelihood that Israel will pressure him into taking certain actions as part of a broader Iran-Israel conflict," he said.

Parsi also addressed Turkey-Iran relations, noting that while they have always been tense, they have maintained a certain level of stability.

"Both countries understand that a maximalist approach toward each other will not work. They may compete in Syria but cooperate elsewhere. However, the balance of power is now shifting. Azerbaijan has become more aggressive, and Turkey bolder. For Iran, this could pose a serious challenge," the analyst emphasized.

According to him, Turkey has strengthened its influence in the Caucasus, while Iran's concerns about Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions are growing.

Regarding the U.S. role, Parsi stated that Washington's priority has been to weaken Russia's position in the Caucasus, but this approach may change under a Trump administration.

"The Biden administration has tried to view Armenia as a tool to create problems for Russia. However, the Trump administration may pay much less attention to this region. This means that U.S. policy will either continue by inertia or change depending on whether Trump's team is interested in the Caucasus at all," he said.

According to the expert, some members of Trump's team identify themselves as "Christian nationalists," which could lead to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict gaining religious significance in their agenda.

Regarding Iran's possible response to the so-called "Zangezur corridor" issue, Parsi noted that it remains complex and unpredictable.

"The fact that Iran has weakened does not mean it is ready to make concessions on this issue. Historically, this has been a red line, and if Iran retreats here, it could set a dangerous precedent that would also undermine its other priorities," he said.

According to the expert, Iran may be forced to focus its resources on this issue if it perceives a real threat to its interests in the "Zangezur corridor" matter.