Mustafa Aydin, former rector of Istanbul's Kadir Has University and professor of international relations, stated that the primary obstacle to normalizing Armenia-Turkey relations is political, stemming from Azerbaijan's current stance.
He emphasized that the close ties between Ankara and Baku prevent Turkey from advancing without Azerbaijan's consent, as reported by Armenpress.
According to Aydin, Turkey is interested in normalization, aligning with its strategic goals in the Caucasus and aspirations to deepen relations with Europe.
Despite ongoing negotiations and diplomatic contacts, Ankara still views the signing of a peace agreement between Yerevan and Baku as a prerequisite.
"As I understand, diplomatic negotiations are underway between Armenia and Turkey, preparing steps toward normalization. However, a condition remains: the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan must be signed for Turkey to proceed. This has been President Erdogan's condition for some time and, to my knowledge, it hasn't changed," noted the Turkish international relations expert.
Aydin added that there is already some positive movement in Armenia-Turkey relations.
"Daily flights operate between Istanbul and Yerevan; Armenia and Turkey engage in trade, albeit through third countries like Georgia. Armenians and Turks can travel to each other's countries, and so on. In this sense, relations are already normalized and functioning," he pointed out.
Analyzing the current negotiation process, Aydin mentioned that Turkey recognizes the proactive approach of Armenia's current leadership, which has contributed to a shift in the negotiation environment.
"I believe Turkey's leadership has noticed the steps taken by Armenia and acknowledges their significance. This has allowed diplomatic negotiations between the two countries to continue. The only obstacle is political, as the close Turkish-Azerbaijani relationship prevents Turkey from moving forward without Azerbaijan's agreement.
For instance, when Turkey and Armenia previously signed protocols to normalize relations, there was significant backlash from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijanis complained that Turkey wasn't consulting them, leading to public opinion in Turkey that closely monitors Azerbaijan's position. Consequently, any Turkish government would face public pressure not to proceed without Baku," the Turkish professor observed.
He noted that Turkey and Azerbaijan share not only close economic ties but also developed military cooperation, making it impossible to separate the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Turkey-Armenia relations.
Nevertheless, Aydin emphasized that Turkey, acting in its own interests, seeks to advance normalization.
"I think Turkey prefers to move forward with normalizing relations with Armenia, as it serves its strategic interests in the Caucasus. It would also strengthen Armenia's current government and support Turkey's intentions to establish closer ties with Europe. All of this benefits Turkey. However, as I mentioned, there's a strong public connection, making it nearly impossible to ignore Azerbaijan's position on normalization," he stated.
When asked whether Turkey could normalize relations with Armenia without Azerbaijan's stance, the Turkish expert didn't rule out such a scenario but highlighted another important factor.
"I think it's possible. Of course, discussing normalization brings in various stakeholders with different perspectives. But at this moment, I don't see a significant obstacle to normalization," he said, adding that the only potential issue he can foresee is Azerbaijan's demand regarding changes to Armenia's Constitution.
The professor also noted that historically, Turkey has sometimes raised such issues.
"Although Turkey isn't currently doing so, this situation could arise in the Armenia-Turkey normalization process. In the 1990s, when discussions about normalizing relations between Ankara and Yerevan were ongoing with then-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan's government, there were similar talks because Armenia's Declaration of Independence refers to territories now part of Turkey. But Turkey isn't raising this now. So, I assume that if no Azerbaijani brings it up, Turkey might. I think Turkey is in a wait-and-see mode regarding developments between Azerbaijan and Armenia," concluded Mustafa Aydin.
Earlier, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during a meeting at the central office of the ruling Justice and Development Party with deputies representing the Eastern, Southeastern, and Black Sea regions, addressed ongoing diplomatic processes in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe.
"We are awaiting the resolution of existing issues, the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the opening of transport and trade corridors," said the Turkish Foreign Minister.
