The Atlantic Council analytical center in the United States has proposed that President Donald Trump’s administration lift restrictions on arms sales to Azerbaijan in exchange for Baku releasing dozens of political prisoners, including Armenians held there.
The proposal is modeled on the approach the White House successfully used in negotiations with Belarus, which resulted in the release of more than 500 prisoners. The authors of the proposal — Eurasia Center Deputy Director Andrew D’Anieri and Eurasia Center researcher Mercedes Sapuppo — wrote that changes in U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus, Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, and the importance of a final peace agreement have increased the likelihood of a “grand bargain” between Washington and Baku, Factor.am reports.
It was noted that agreements reached by the Trump administration with Belarus secured the release of hundreds of detainees. A similar deal with Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus could yield major results with far lower risks. To implement such a “grand bargain,” the Trump administration should work with Congress by offering to remove restrictions on arms sales to Baku in exchange for the release of individuals unjustly imprisoned in Azerbaijan, some of whom have ties to the United States.
The report says this represents a rare opportunity for bipartisan success and a relatively low-cost way to improve U.S. relations with a strategically important energy and transportation partner bordering Iran and Russia. Armenia could also support the initiative if the releases include at least some Armenians currently held in Azerbaijan.
The article stressed that the Trump administration should engage Congress to address Baku’s main concern — the repeal of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which restricts U.S. arms sales to Azerbaijan. Congress originally adopted the measure in 1992 in response to Azerbaijan’s hostilities against Armenians in Artsakh and the blockade of Armenia.
In 2001, the U.S. Senate approved an amendment allowing the White House to waive Section 907 restrictions. Since then, both Republican and Democratic presidents have waived the provision almost every year. The move has carried strong symbolic importance for President Ilham Aliyev’s government, which has viewed it as an obstacle to closer ties with Washington.
According to the publication, relations between Washington, Baku, and Yerevan have shifted. Armenia and Azerbaijan received unprecedented attention from the United States after Vice President JD Vance became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the countries in February, following a trilateral leaders’ summit in Washington in August 2025.
In Yerevan, the vice president announced billions of dollars in support for nuclear energy and discussed a major U.S.-funded supercomputing project. During the Baku visit, agreements were reached on cooperation between the United States and Azerbaijan in several sectors, though no specific deal was finalized.
The report noted that parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia on June 7, and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan may face a serious challenge from pro-Russian parties skeptical of his efforts to achieve peace with Azerbaijan. The Kremlin has allegedly conducted a large-scale disinformation campaign aimed at undermining Pashinyan’s campaign.
It also stated that officials and experts in Baku rightly view Pashinyan as their best opportunity to finally reach a formal peace agreement and may be inclined to quietly support his candidacy. The article asks what better way there could be to weaken Pashinyan’s pro-Russian opponents and preserve the path to peace than releasing high-profile Armenian prisoners before the elections.
In addition, Azerbaijan has gained greater support from U.S. Republicans and may wish to move forward on the issue while Congress remains under Republican control. This is why, just six months before U.S. midterm elections, the Trump administration may push ahead, as unified Republican control could make cooperation with Congress on repealing Section 907 easier.
The publication said the release of detainees considered unjustly imprisoned by officials, senators, and experts should include anti-corruption advocate Gubad Ibadoghlu, journalists from Radio Liberty and Voice of America, as well as some Armenian detainees.
The impact of releasing unjustly detained individuals would be far more valuable for the United States than preserving a law that is routinely waived almost every year. The article said the stakes in Azerbaijan are much lower. The United States would not be lifting sanctions, but merely allowing the continuation of security assistance to Baku.
Today, U.S. military assistance remains limited. Since 2002, the United States has provided Azerbaijan with roughly $80 million in defense aid overall. During his February visit, Vance promised additional assistance in the form of an unspecified number of maritime patrol boats to help protect the country’s ports.
These are non-lethal and relatively minor forms of security assistance made possible because the United States has annually waived Section 907. That figure could grow if the provision is repealed and Washington and Baku begin forming multi-year security assistance packages. However, such aid would likely remain focused on non-lethal border security.
The article noted that Azerbaijan has already acquired offensive capabilities from Turkey and Israel at lower prices than American companies could offer. With Iran and Russia’s volatile southern regions remaining unstable, Azerbaijan has needed early-warning systems and border security more than lethal capabilities.
According to the authors, the only thing the United States risks losing by repealing Section 907 is leverage. Trump could use that leverage, building on his administration’s success in securing the release of political prisoners in Belarus while promoting peace in the South Caucasus.
Aliyev may even be more open to such a deal than Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Unlike Belarus, where the pro-democracy movement operates in exile but remains a powerful diplomatic force, Azerbaijan’s government faces a far more restrained opposition and could release detainees without fearing any serious threat to its rule.
The sequence of the agreement
According to the proposal, the full “grand bargain” should unfold as follows: before Armenia’s parliamentary elections in June, Azerbaijan should release some Armenians captured in Ղարաբաղ in 2023 as a gesture of goodwill toward the agreement.
Afterward, Washington and Baku should agree to repeal Section 907 in exchange for the release of Azerbaijani and additional Armenian prisoners.
The publication says the proposed agreement offers benefits to all sides. Baku would effectively receive two gains for one: preserving Pashinyan as a viable peace negotiating partner while resolving its main issue with the United States.
Trump’s team would secure the release of unjustly detained individuals and strengthen the president’s image as a peacemaker at virtually no cost. Congressional Republicans would gain a foreign policy victory for the president, while Democrats could highlight their role in a rare human rights success. Both sides would also ease concerns within the influential Armenian diaspora by securing the release of Armenians from Artsakh.
Yerevan would regain its citizens and secure a more stable path toward normalizing relations with its neighbors. The arrangement should also include a clear warning to Baku that the benefits received depend on preserving the hard-won peace.
The article emphasized that with additional encouragement from the United States, Baku and Yerevan could take another step toward a final peace agreement by releasing detainees. Importantly, all parties could claim a foreign policy success at almost no cost.
