Political scientists' predictions on possibilities for a new war in Caucasus did not come true, said former Advisor to RF President Andrey Illarionov , Head of Economic Analysis Institute.

The expert noted in particular that the scenario of 2008 August war may be repeated in July, after the end of "Caucasus 2009" military trainings. In the meantime, Illarionov believes that Russian leadership may take advantage of Obama's upcoming visit to Russia to show the world that the new stage of war is coordinated with US.

"The region will face the threat of war unless Russian leadership refuses to carry out its strategic plan aimed at reforming Georgia's political course," analyst finds.

Speaking about the reasons, he particularly notes, "One reason is the legalization of their military presence on Abkhazian and South Ossetian territory. Another reason is the need for having military-naval bases on the Abkhazian cost of Georgia." "The operations on Georgian territory and far beyond its borders prove that war continues," pro-opposition activist finds. "And that applies not only to all military operations but diplomatic, foreign policy, information, transport, economic and many other maneuvers," Newsru.com quotes Illarionov as saying.