Speaking about South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is impossible to ignore Nagorno Karabakh, according to political expert Andrey Yepifantsev .
The political scientist thinks that, Russia experienced the biggest diplomatic failure at the Kazan meeting between Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia for Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement within the framework of OSCE Minsk Group, since the meeting did not yield results expected by many. The summit was primordially programmed to failure. There is not any diplomatic settlement of Karabakh conflict to be offered presently, all variants have been tried and rejected within years and nothing new can be invented, Yepifantsev writes in the article ‘Russia in Transcaucasus: what the problem is’ published at globalaffairs.ru
“The settlement is possible only on the base of deep compromise of both parties, but neither Armenian nor Azerbaijani public is ready for it. Namely people, not leaders, are concerned. Neither Aliyev nor Sargsyan has mandate enabling to sign any other variant of agreement than that of stipulating victory. It is senseless to continue talks under these circumstances; this would be only imitation of settlement. Currently I would consider possible change of situation following two scenarios:
a) Elaboration of unified and tougher position of international community on behalf of Minsk Group, supported by UN, compeling the parties to implement a variant offered. This may be solution, though Armenia is liable to take Russia’s mediation negatively.
b) Renouncement of talks with neat fixation of a provision envisaging inadmissibility to settle the conflict in military way. It is necessary to make influence on Armenian and Azerbaijani public to make them understand importance of compromise and refusal from tough position. After several years’ propaganda, in case of shift signals in public atmosphere talks may be revived,” the article says, as reported by Analitika.at.ua.
The summit between Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia in Kazan on June 24 completed without an agreement on basic principles of Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement because the Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev attempted to impose 10 new proposals, thus precluding the possibility of any agreement on the issue. After Kasan meeting failure, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov handed over personal messages and suggestions of RF President Dmitry Medvedev to Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev. Armenia and Azerbaijan already replied to President Medvedev’s suggestions.